Lazy day with NFL Draft and MLB.tv

I work with sports every day, but sometimes it’s nice to have a lazy Saturday, and spend some weekend time with sports. Today, the 2007 NFL Draft and a full slate of baseball games are doing the job.

The Eagles took Houston quarterback Kevin Kolb about a round too early, but they did well to move down from the 26th overall pick, even if it helped the Cowboys a bit. As the ESPN analysts noted, the Eagles don’t have many weaknesses, so anything that comes from today is gravy.

The Cleveland Browns were the day’s big winners, netting their quarterback of the future (Brady Quinn from Notre Dame), and an offensive lineman to protect him (Joe Thomas from Wisconsin). Personally, I think Charlie Frye will be fine, but you can’t complain about Quinn, especially as late as he went. It was interesting looking at teams picking after Miami (who passed on Quinn) and seeing already-set QB situations. Cleveland did well trading up, and did well choosing the spot to do it.

Meanwhile, there was a full slate of baseball today, which I watched on MLB.tv. The Yankees finally won a game (after having lost seven in a row), beating the Red Sox. My fantasy teams were all pretty lousy today, and Chris Burke didn’t even play, sitting for newly minted Hunter Pence. It’ll be a struggle to replace Burke, who has a low batting average, but his on-base percentage was 100 points higher and he’d stolen five bases. I’d think the occasionally-smart management in Houston will let Burke play often enough.

It’s time to go out for the night, and Matt Cain just gave up his first hit. It’s the fifth inning. Cain has been a great find for my fantasy team.

Is Mike Piazza a Hall of Famer?

About five years ago, Mike Piazza was firmly entrenched as the best hitting catcher of all-time. He was probably a Hall of Famer at that point, and now he is pretty much a lock.

Mike Piazza on Baseball Reference

Statistically, the most similar player to Mike Piazza is Alex Rodriguez. That bodes well for Piazza because it’s not park adjusted, and Rodriguez spent years in Seattle at the Kingdome and in Texas at the erstwhile Ballpark in Arlington, while Piazza toiled at spacious Dodger Stadium, and pitcher paradise Shea Stadium. Besides A-Rod, Piazza has a pretty notable comparables list: Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Duke Snider, and some current stars like Chipper Jones and Jeff Kent.

Piazza was a pretty terrible catcher, and teams often ran wild against him. Still, few players have had ability to be behind the plate for nine innings while still producing as a hitter. Piazza did so on historic levels, while playing in stadiums that certainly didn’t help his cause.

Four times, Piazza was in the top 4 of MVP voting, and he was in the top 10 seven times. His career OBP of .379 is fantastic for a catcher, and his career .550 slugging percentage is great for any player. Piazza has been the key player on many great-hitting teams.

As Piazza winds down his career, we are lucky to see him bat every day as a Designated Hitter. Piazza can still swing, but even if he never hits another home run, his Cooperstown legacy is already cemented.

Phillies should get Brad Lidge

In 2004, Brad Lidge allowed a .542 opponents’ OPS and struck out 14.93 batters per nine innings. Those marks are fantastic, and Lidge may never reach those levels again. In 2006, when Lidge’s ERA rose to 5.28, he still managed a 12.48 K/9 rate, which was the second best in baseball (behind Joe Nathan) among pitchers with 60 or more innings.

Every team could use a player who can strike batters out. Especially the Philadelphia Phillies, whose K/9 in relief is a middling 15th in the majors. Tom Gordon may be a good option as the closer, but it would be great to put Lidge in front of him for when a strikeout is needed. Having lost his job twice to Dan Wheeler, Lidge can be had for a song. Come on, Pat Gillick – pull the trigger.

Is Joe Carter a Hall of Famer?

By request, here’s some analysis about Joe Carter’s Hall of Fame chances. We all know that Joe Carter is Soundgarden, but is he a Hall of Famer?

Joe Carter on Baseball-Reference

Joe Carter has Hall of Famers Willie Stargell and Orlando Cepeda among his comparables, and he did have 10 seasons of 100 or more RBIs. Those are about the only ways in which Joe Carter can be considered a Hall of Famer. He also has Ruben Sierra, Jim Rice, and Dale Murphy among his comparables, three of the most overrated players out there. A five-time All Star with four seasons in the Top 10 of MVP voting, Carter relied heavily on the batters ahead of him to pad his RBI totals. Fortunately, Roberto Alomar and Brett Butler, both with fantastic on-base percentages, batted ahead of Carter for a long time.

Given how much of his resume is related to the ability to get on base, you would think that Carter learned something, and managed to get on base at a respectable clip. Not so much: Carter was below the league-average park adjusted on-base percentage in 15 of his 16 seasons. Most seasons, it wasn’t even close, and Carter’s career .306 on-base percentage is putrid.

Carter played exactly 2 of his 2189 career games at positions other than first base, left field, right field, and designated hitter. Though he added almost nothing in the field, Carter did steal 231 bases at a barely acceptable 78 percent rate. That’s his strong point because for a power hitter, his .464 slugging percentage is not terribly impressive.

Joe Carter won two World Series, and hit a season-ending home run. He played 16 years in the Majors and earned in the range of $50 million, all told. But he’s far from a Hall of Famer. There are probably a thousand players, statistically, who deserve to make it before Carter.

Frank Thomas pillow fight commercial

I don’t advocate baseball players beating up children, but there’s a great Blue Jays commercial featuring Frank Thomas winning a pillow fight. The Big Hurt will take a walk, but he’ll never back down from a good pillow fight.

Yahoo MLB Player Ranker

I just noticed Yahoo’s MLB Player Ranker linked off my fantasy clubhouse. Basically, it shows you two players, chosen and random, and you choose the better fantasy player. Then they aggregate the totals and you can view them. Excellent use of “user-created” content. Incidentally, I drew Oliver Perez and Chris Carpenter just now. Guess who I picked?

Opening Day is here!

Baseball is in full swing, and all of my fantasy teams are already in trouble. It was nice to see Adam Dunn swat two dingers for Cincinnati; is this the year he puts it all together? My best team is one that autodrafted: I had nice performances from Hanley Ramirez, Brad Hawpe, and of course, Felix Hernandez (9 IP, 0 ER, 12 K; wow!). Bob Wickman also did something good: earned a win against my Phillies. I guess if they’re going to lose in extra innings, one of my fantasy guys should get the win.

Interesting note: in the Pirates/Astros game, Brad Lidge blew a save and Salomon Torres earned one. Wonder who went first in your draft?

2007 MLB team prop bets

Here are some team over/unders I like for 2007:

DBacks over 79
Brewers over 82
White Sox under 87
Indians over 85
Tigers under 88
Angels under 90
Yankees under 97

Disclaimer: This is just one man’s opinion. Don’t hold me responsible if you gamble and lose.

ESPN’s Fantasy Rock Opera

Here’s a great commercial for ESPN’s Free Fantasy Baseball, a product which I heartily endorse. Though I didn’t draft Carlos Lee on any teams this year, I can certainly relate. And here is a link to the extended version.

The Troy Glaus situation

Troy Glaus, third baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays, is quite an athlete. In fact, Glaus is such a good athlete that the Jays stick him at shortstop once in a while. They did that eight times in 2006. According to Yahoo Fantasy Baseball’s quite-lenient rules, Glaus is eligible to play in the shortstop slot in 2007. Since a power-hitting shortstop is rare, that increases his value significantly.

I ask you: in what way is Troy Glaus 41 picks worse than Miguel Tejada? That’s how it played out in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge. Glaus went with the 2nd pick in the 5th round (16 teams), 11 picks after I took his teammate, Vernon Wells. That’s one I wish I could take back. Wells is on the verge of free agency, so I expect big things this season. But I expect things just as big from Glaus, at a position where Yuniesky Betancourt is a regular, rather than in the outfield, where I can always pick up David Dellucci or Matt Kemp.

Fortunately, the guy who took Glaus also took Brian Roberts four picks earlier, so he’s got other issues.