Is Jeff Kent a Hall of Famer?

For a few years, I’ve considered Jeff Kent to be a guy on the cusp of a Hall of Fame career. After all, there aren’t many middle infielders with eight 100-RBI seasons. Kent’s comparables on Baseball-Reference include Hall of Famers Yogi Berra, Ryne Sandberg, Bobby Doerr, and Orlando Cepeda, as well as great players with long careers like Joe Torre, Ron Santo, Paul O’Neill, and Luis Gonzalez. Plus, Kent is still playing at a pretty high level.

Since he’s an infielder, Kent doesn’t need to have as many gaudy offensive stats as some other players. But he’s only finished in the top 10 in OPS once (10th in his 2000 MVP season), and even adjusting his OPS only gets him one other top 10 appearance. Sandberg, by contrast, has six appearances in the top 10 in OPS, although the adjustments actually hurt him because of his ballpark. The park factors for those two are probably evened out by the eras in which they played: Big advantage to Kent. Kent’s .356 career OBP is better than Sandberg’s, but he didn’t win multiple Gold Gloves or steal nearly as many bases.

A few names on Kent’s comparables list raise flags in the other direction: Bobby Bonilla and Ellis Burks are hardly Hall of Famers. If Kent can have a couple more good years (not a sure thing at age 38), he will probably reach that next level, and with the Sandberg comparision, he will probably be a worthy Hall of Famer.

Is Gary Sheffield a Hall of Famer?

Gary Sheffield on Baseball-Reference

Sure, we all know what Sheffield has done lately, but what’s amazing is that he has been doing it for quite a long time. As far back as 1992, Sheffield posted a .965 OPS (the league OPS in 1992 was .712. It hasn’t been below .744 since. That OPS ranked second in the league (behind some guy named Barry Bonds, and is even more impressive because Sheffield still had defensive value, playing 144 games that third base.

That was just the beginning. Traded to Florida, Sheffield amassed walk totals of 142 and 121 in 1996 and 1997, leading the Marlins to their first World Series victory. Even the unfriendly confines of Dodger Stadium couldn’t slow him down; Sheffield posted an OPS close to 1.000 during his time in Los Angeles. Sheffield followed with four great seasons with the Braves and Yankees before getting injured in 2006.

Sheffield was a sensational hitter, but also gets some extra credit because he played a lot of third base (and even 94 games at shortstop), and because he ran well. As recently as 2003, Sheffield stole 18 bases in 22 tries. All told he stole 220 bases at a 70% clip. Five times in the Top 10 for MVP voting, Sheffield really posted some big numbers over a long period of time. He gets points for his peak as well as points for longevity.

In this era, Sheffield’s 455 career homers might get overlooked. But he’s 48th in career OPS+ (145, tied with Mike Piazza and Alex Rodriguez, ahead of Sam Crawford), and all of his comparables are Hall of Famers (or should be, except Fred McGriff): Jeff Bagwell, Ken Griffey, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, Duke Snider, Mickey Mantle, and Eddie Mathews.

Most importantly, Sheffield is not finished. He signed a contract with the Tigers and should have a few more seasons left at a high level. While he’s probably already done enough to find Cooperstown (his career OBP is higher than Tony Gwynn’s), he still has a bit left in his tank.

Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?

With all the hubbub surrounding Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, and the Hall of Fame announcement coming tomorrow, there has been a lot of debate about the Hall of Fame candidacy of several active players. You probably know how I feel about Frank Thomas, but one player who sparked some of the most interesting debate was Andruw Jones. Andruw’s Baseball-Reference page is clearly a good place to start.

Andruw reached the top level at 19 and made a big splash, leading many to believe he is very likely to fade quickly, just like Darryl Strawberry, Ruben Sierra, and Eric Davis. In fact, Strawberry is rated as Andruw’s top comparable, based on current career stats. That list is dotted with cautionary tales, including Davis, Ron Gant, and Raul Mondesi. However, looking at players through their 29-year-old seasons (where Andruw is right now), sheds new light on the topic. While Strawberry, Sierra, and Juan Gonzalez are on that list, the other seven are Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, Ken Griffey, Al Kaline, Ron Santo, Hank Aaron, and Duke Snider, all of whom are either in the Hall of Fame, will be, or should be.

That’s the main point about cautionary tales; they are cautionary. Sure, Ruben Sierra flamed out, but Eddie Mathews also came up early, and he did not flame out. Sure, Eric Davis had all the talent in the world but didn’t make the most of it. Griffey, on the other hand, made more than enough of his talents (even if he didn’t quite max out).

What separates Andruw Jones from the flameouts? Andruw has never had a major injury, never accumulating fewer than 630 plate appearances in any season since he became a regular. Sure, he won’t be Cal Ripken, but Jones won’t be hurt too much if he misses parts of a season or two. Plus Andruw is an incredible fielder, something Strawberry, Sierra, JuanGone and Ron Gant will never be able to claim. That means he might age more gracefully like Steve Finley, Jim Edmonds, and other guys who were able to play well on both sides of the ball into their later years. With a peak like Andruw has been having, that sort of finish will put him in a good spot.

Andruw Jones has already played 10 years in the Major Leagues, and already has almost 350 home runs. The .345 OBP is barely above average, but Jones has exceeded the league in slugging percentage and defense, and even stole over 100 bases at a success rate over 70 percent. He’s trending up with the power, and should have a few more great years in him before he tails off. And look at his yearly comparables: after spending ages 21-27 with Ruben Sierra as his best match, Jones has had Frank Robinson sitting in that spot for the last two years.

Right now, Jones falls a bit short. But I think by 2009, we will feel pretty strongly that Andruw Jones will have already amassed Hall of Fame credentials.

Is Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?

Frank Thomas is very good. That’s an understatement. Every once in a while I sneak a peek at Frank Thomas’ page on Baseball-Reference and I am always amazed at just how great he has been during his career. Sure, 487 career homers and two MVPs make Thomas a near-lock for the Hall of Fame, but that’s just the beginning. In my book, he’s beyond a Hall of Famer. He approaches the inner circle.

In baseball, a .400 on-base percentage represents greatness. Ken Griffey, Jr., one of the great hitters of this generation, only achieved the mark twice, topping out at .408 in 1993. How about Thomas? Thomas topped .430 (not just .400) seven times during his career. His career on-base percentage is .424, a mark 16 points higher than Griffey’s career high. Thomas reaches base so well that even when he batted .221 in 20 games in an injury plagued 2001 season, he managed a .316 OBP. Same with 2005, when he hit .219 in 34 games and reached base at a .315 clip.

In 1994, Thomas had one of the great seasons of all time. Reaching base at a .487 clip, Thomas hit 38 homers in the strike-shortened season, good for a .729 slugging percentage. Added up, that’s a 1.216 OPS, which rivals even Barry Bonds’ best seasons.

Thomas has been among the best hitters in baseball from his debut in 1990 right up through his 2006 season in Oakland. His 160 adjusted OPS+ ranks 15th in the history of baseball. That’s a metric that adjusts for era and ballpark, and Thomas is right up there with the greats. Right behind Thomas are Stan Musial, Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize, and Tris Speaker. All four are among the best hitters in the history of baseball.

Thomas never offered much defensively, but he didn’t have to. As a hitter he was once-in-a-generation. On top of that, Thomas has been an outspoken opponent of steroids and has avoided the accusations that have plagued players with similar statistics. The Blue Jays invested in Thomas this offseason, and I am sure that he will continue to get on base quite frequently in 2007.