Luis Gonzalez on baseball-reference.com

Luis Gonzalez has had a very interesting career, spanning 18 seasons, and including a walk-off hit in the World Series. Most importantly, Gonzalez is not yet finished, enjoying a renaissance at age 39. Is Gonzalez a Hall of Famer? Well, in addition to the famous hit, Gonzalez hit 57 home runs in 2001, one of the finest seasons by any player. He has longevity and great peak seasons, but not enough of either to reach the hallowed grounds.

Gonzalez has always been underrated, from his Astrodome-deflated stats in his 20s to his doubles-heavy record in his 30s. From 1990-97, except for a brief stint with the Cubs, Gonzalez played his home games in the Astrodome, the worst hitters’ park in baseball history. Gonzalez hit only 62 home runs for the Astros and his counting stats were severely hampered. Now, as Gonzalez approaches 350 home runs, his record would look much better if not for the numbers he lost to his home stadium.

Even as he became the face of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Gonzalez performed under the radar. While the 57 homer season stands out, Gonzalez has had four other seasons of 45 or more doubles since turning 30, leading to some very impressive slugging percentages. Even when he wasn’t knocking the ball of out the park, Gonzalez remained an important power hitter.

The most similar player to Gonzalez, statistically, is Dave Parker. Like Parker, Gonzalez has had a long career with some important highlights, but the overall package just isn’t enough. Gonzalez had some power, but not as much as most of his contemporaries. He was durable, but not as much as some other players. Gonzalez didn’t stand out as a fielder or baserunner and really didn’t have anything to overcome his low totals.

Gonzalez has always been considered one of the good guys in baseball, and even took a turn broadcasting while he was still an active player. But he falls well short of the Hall of Fame.

About five years ago, Mike Piazza was firmly entrenched as the best hitting catcher of all-time. He was probably a Hall of Famer at that point, and now he is pretty much a lock.

Mike Piazza on Baseball Reference

Statistically, the most similar player to Mike Piazza is Alex Rodriguez. That bodes well for Piazza because it’s not park adjusted, and Rodriguez spent years in Seattle at the Kingdome and in Texas at the erstwhile Ballpark in Arlington, while Piazza toiled at spacious Dodger Stadium, and pitcher paradise Shea Stadium. Besides A-Rod, Piazza has a pretty notable comparables list: Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Duke Snider, and some current stars like Chipper Jones and Jeff Kent.

Piazza was a pretty terrible catcher, and teams often ran wild against him. Still, few players have had ability to be behind the plate for nine innings while still producing as a hitter. Piazza did so on historic levels, while playing in stadiums that certainly didn’t help his cause.

Four times, Piazza was in the top 4 of MVP voting, and he was in the top 10 seven times. His career OBP of .379 is fantastic for a catcher, and his career .550 slugging percentage is great for any player. Piazza has been the key player on many great-hitting teams.

As Piazza winds down his career, we are lucky to see him bat every day as a Designated Hitter. Piazza can still swing, but even if he never hits another home run, his Cooperstown legacy is already cemented.

By request, here’s some analysis about Joe Carter’s Hall of Fame chances. We all know that Joe Carter is Soundgarden, but is he a Hall of Famer?

Joe Carter on Baseball-Reference

Joe Carter has Hall of Famers Willie Stargell and Orlando Cepeda among his comparables, and he did have 10 seasons of 100 or more RBIs. Those are about the only ways in which Joe Carter can be considered a Hall of Famer. He also has Ruben Sierra, Jim Rice, and Dale Murphy among his comparables, three of the most overrated players out there. A five-time All Star with four seasons in the Top 10 of MVP voting, Carter relied heavily on the batters ahead of him to pad his RBI totals. Fortunately, Roberto Alomar and Brett Butler, both with fantastic on-base percentages, batted ahead of Carter for a long time.

Given how much of his resume is related to the ability to get on base, you would think that Carter learned something, and managed to get on base at a respectable clip. Not so much: Carter was below the league-average park adjusted on-base percentage in 15 of his 16 seasons. Most seasons, it wasn’t even close, and Carter’s career .306 on-base percentage is putrid.

Carter played exactly 2 of his 2189 career games at positions other than first base, left field, right field, and designated hitter. Though he added almost nothing in the field, Carter did steal 231 bases at a barely acceptable 78 percent rate. That’s his strong point because for a power hitter, his .464 slugging percentage is not terribly impressive.

Joe Carter won two World Series, and hit a season-ending home run. He played 16 years in the Majors and earned in the range of $50 million, all told. But he’s far from a Hall of Famer. There are probably a thousand players, statistically, who deserve to make it before Carter.

John Olerud on Baseball-Reference

Obviously, John Olerud will fall far short of the Hall of Fame, but he is perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball history. Just look at his top two comparables: Will Clark and Edgar Martinez, two players who are very underrated themselves and will probably get a small pocket of Hall support.

Olerud was a star from the beginning, skipping the minors and going 3 for 8 with Toronto in his professional debut in 1989. Olerud’s teams made the playoffs eight times. Though he hit in the middle of the lineup, Olerud was terrible underrated because of his perfomance was higher in off-the-beaten-path statistical measures. Though he hit only 255 home runs, Olerud hit 500 doubles, lifting his slugging percentage to a more respectable .465. And though he hit only .295, Olerud placed in the top ten in walks nine times, leading to a superb on-base percentage. Olerud did hit .350 or better twice.

The most underrated aspect of Olerud’s game might be his defense. Though he won only three gold gloves, Olerud was the first baseman for three of the best defensive teams of all-time, the 1993 Blue Jays, the 1999 Mets, and the 2001 Mariners. Quite simply, Olerud made his infield-mates better, to the point where Bret Boone was considered a Gold Glover, and Roberto Alomar went from being a great fielder to a sensational one. As first basemen go, there aren’t many who can match Olerud’s resume.

Olerud will never be considered for the Hall of Famer and probably doesn’t deserve it. But he did play 17 years with great defense and a higher on-base percentage than Tony Gwynn. It’s a great career, even it doesn’t get as much recognition as it should.

ESPN.com had about Gary Sheffield, including mention that he doesn’t often think about the Hall of Fame. You’ve seen my thoughts on the matter:

Most importantly, Sheffield is not finished. He signed a contract with the Tigers and should have a few more seasons left at a high level. While he’s probably already done enough to find Cooperstown (his career OBP is higher than Tony Gwynn’s), he still has a bit left in his tank.

Obviously, Sheffield is already a shoe-in. Even five years ago, Joe Sheehan said he was on a good track, and obviously he hasn’t done anything to stray off that path.

Bernie Williams on Baseball-Reference

Bernie Williams is exactly the kind of player who sparks this kind of discussion. There is really a lot to like here. In 465 postseason at-bats (nearly a full season), Bernie hit 22 home runs with 80 RBIs, numbers which closely approximate his regular season stats. Though he was an outfielder, Bernie played center field. Though he hit under .300, Bernie walked enough to garner a .381 on-base percentage. Though not a power hitter, Bernie had a .500 slugging percentage six straight years. Though not fleet afoot, Bernie stole 147 bases.

He played an important position and starred on some great teams for a long time. What’s not to like? Well, Bernie wasn’t good enough at anything in particular to make his record stand out. He played center field, a tough position to play, but he wasn’t particularly great at the position, and in recent years he has been downright bad. He hit for some power, but so did Jorge Posada. Bernie topped out at 30 for a career best. The stolen bases are almost completely negated by an awful percentage. He played for a long time, but he seems just about done well short of 20 years.

Bernie is a five-time All-Star, but perhaps the best summation of his career can be found in his most comparable player: Paul O’Neill. Teammates on several championship teams, O’Neill was never as good as Bernie, and falls way short of Hall consideration. Lo and behold, Bernie’s comparable list is full of players who will fall short: Will Clark and Edgar Martinez have decent cases, but it will be an uphill climb. Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Bonilla, and Ellis Burks all fit into the same category: a lot of greatness, but not quite enough.

Bernie Williams is probably my father’s favorite player of the current Yankees, but even he admits that Bernie would fit perfectly in a Hall of Very Good. I don’t think that’s in Cooperstown.

Kevin Brown on Baseball-Reference

Once upon a time, baseball fans did not know who Kevin Brown was. Even though he won 21 games for the 1992 Texas Rangers, people still confused him with catcher Kevin L. Brown. As a rookie in 1989, Brown fell far short in Rookie of the Year balloting, finishing sixth. The two Rookies of the Year that year were Gregg Olsen in the AL and Jerome Walton in the NL. Needless to say, both have been retired for a long time.

As noted, Brown won 21 games in 1992, and posted some decent seasons before coming to the Marlins in 1996. In 1996, Brown posted a 1.96 ERA, less than half the league average that season. According to Brown’s adjusted ERA+ (adjusted for league stats and ballpark), he posted the 22nd best pitching season of all time. The following year, Brown had another great season and pitched the Marlins to a World Series victory.

Now 33 and coming off back-to-back great seasons, Brown was just getting started. In 1998, he led the Padres to the World Series, throwing a shutout in the NLCS. The following year, after signing the richest pitching contract in history, Brown continued the fantastic streak, extending his run of seasons with an adjusted ERA+ over 148 and more than 200 strikeouts to four in a row. After injuries in 2002, Brown came back in 2003, posting a 2.39 ERA.

At that point, Brown was traded to the Yankees, fresh off a World Series appearance. Now 39 years old, Brown could have cemented his legacy by pitching decently and letting the Yankee lineup inflate his win total. But he floundered with the Yankees, and now sits on 211 wins and a 3.28 ERA, numbers that detractors claim fall short of the Hall of Fame.

Despite pitching in pitcher’s parks for most of his career, Brown has managed a 127 adjusted ERA+, tied for 42nd best in baseball history (with Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson, and Tom Seaver part of the tie). Lefty Gomez, Jim Palmer, Dazzy Vance, and Bob Feller are Hall of Famers with lower marks, and current stars Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina also trail Brown’s mark.

At his peak, Brown was among the very best pitchers in baseball. And he definitely had the longevity to match. Though you won’t get many baseball fans to agree, Kevin Brown has definitely had a Hall of Fame career.

Jeff Bagwell on Baseball-Reference

Jeff Bagwell’s two closest comparables are listed as Frank Thomas and Gary Sheffield. Perhaps you saw Hall of Fame discussions about Thomas and Sheffield right on this website. I came to the conclusion that both Thomas and Sheffield were Hall-Worthy, so Bagwell should follow right behind, right? Let’s delve a little deeper.

The basic stats leave a little room for discussion. Bagwell played for 15 years, which is a long time, but not an extremely long time. He hit 449 home runs, which is a lot, but not a whole lot. He hit .297, which is impressive, but not quite at the elite level. Some might claim that Bagwell was human in the postseason, hitting .229 overall, and .125 in his lone World Series appearance.

Bagwell’s record is deeper than that. In fact, it’s much deeper. During the first nine years of Bagwell’s career, he called the Astrodome his home. Despite playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the history of baseball, Bagwell put up some fantastic numbers, including four seasons with an OPS over 1.000. In the strike-shortened 1994, Bagwell almost won the Triple Crown, leading the league in batting average and RBIs but falling short in home runs. That season, he posted a 213 adjusted OPS+, a mark bettered by only Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire among his contemporaries.

Bagwell rarely missed a game, playing more than 156 games in 10 of his first 12 non-strike seasons. Even as his defense deteriorated, Bagwell stayed on the field, finishing with only 10 games as a designated hitter. He finished with 202 stolen bases, taken at an acceptable 72% rate, and managed to steal 11 bases as a 35-year-old in 2003. From 1996 through 2000 (not even including his best year, 1994), Bagwell completed a five-year stretch of seasons with more than 100 runs, 100 RBIs, and 100 walks. His low on-base percentage in that time was .424 and his low slugging was .570. He also averaged more than 20 stolen bases per season in that span. Most importantly, four of the five seasons were played with the Astrodome as his home ballpark.

Jeff Bagwell is a no-brainer. Anyone who finds him unworthy of the Hall simply isn’t correct. Bagwell was great at his peak, and achieved significant longevity. While his home ballpark held him back, he still put up astounding numbers. When his name comes up for election in five-years, Jeff Bagwell deserves to be listed as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

At the request of Matt Berman, a true sport fan (who happens to hate the Red Sox)

Curt Schilling on Baseball-Reference

Recently, I wrote that Curt Schilling “probably will be” a Hall of Famer. I was challenged in that statement so I decided to do a little research. With over 200 wins and 3000 strikeouts, Schilling has probably done enough to impress the voters, but really, he’s done enough to impress anyone who looks into the matter.

While the bloody sock gets the press, Curt’s most impressive moment might have been Game 5 of the 1993 World Series. Coming off a wild loss to Toronto in Game 4, the Phillies turned to Schilling, keeping their hopes alive until a certain Joe Carter home run you might remember. He did not disappoint, earning a 2-0 victory. The Postseason is a small sample size, but Schilling has had all kinds of success in October: LCS MVP, World Series MVP, Savior of a Nation, and so forth.

In the regular season, Schilling proved slightly more human. The writers love 20-win season, and Schilling had three of them, but his best season was probably 1997, when struck out 319 batters, but only won 17 games. He has served as a young gun (1992-93), a workhorse (1997-98) and an ace (2001-02), and even managed to be the 4th youngest player in the league (21 in 1988) and the 10th oldest (39 in 2006 and moving up). Schilling has the second best strikeout to walk ratio in Major League history.

Schilling comparable list includes Kevin Brown, Bob Welch, David Cone, John Smoltz, and Mike Mussina. I guess that’s better than six years ago when Scott Sanderson topped the list, but that definitely doesn’t make Curt a shoo-in. But Schilling has pitched for a long time at a high level. Even last year, he managed 15 wins and 183 strikeouts. If he finishes with around 240 wins, that should be enough to get him in. And I can’t wait to hear his acceptance speech.

In a few years, John Smoltz will probably be one of the most divisive names in Hall of Fame voting history. Still going strong as he turns 40 this season, Smoltz has a pretty impressive resume.

John Smoltz on Baseball-Reference

According to Baseball-Reference, Smoltz’s top three comparables are Kevin Brown, Curt Schilling, and Dazzy Vance. Vance already is a Hall of Famer, Curt Schilling probably will be, and Brown has a surprisingly solid case. However, the comparison tells us very little about Smoltz, because Smoltz has something else: three seasons of over 44 saves, including a 2003 season that ranks among the best relief pitcher seasons of all time.

As a starter, one of the knocks on Smoltz is that he only amassed 193 career victories. Obviously the 300 number isn’t what it used to be: Smoltz actually tied for the National League lead in wins in 2006. But Tom Glavine was his teammate for most of their careers, and Glavine will get over 300, while Smoltz will fall far short.

Smoltz has been a workhorse, finishing in the top 5 in innings pitched seven times. He also has been a great strikeout pitcher, regularly finishing among the leaders in strikeout rate. He has been truly awesome in the postseason, with a career 2.65 ERA in 207 innings. He even proved to be a good hitter, winning a Silver Slugger in 1997.

For Smoltz, there are two factors that trump those impressive accomplishments. From 2002 through 2004, Smoltz was nearly the best relief pitcher in baseball, with a 2003 season (80 innings, 1.12 ERA, 45 saves) that stacks up with any relief season in history. Though Smoltz’s performance that year is often overlooked because Eric Gagne had an even better season, it should be noted that Smoltz had a better ERA.

Also, Smoltz is not finished. He returned to starting in 2005 and has had two seasons with far above average numbers. While Smoltz’s era-reduced 193 wins are fewer than the typical Hall of Famer should have, his other counting stats keep increasing. He should be able to pitch even longer because he pitched less in his three seasons as a closer.

Right now, Smoltz might be a bit short of Hall of Fame consideration. But he does not need much more to be a viable candidate and his career path is right on pace to reach the levels he needs.